{"id":232403,"date":"2025-07-14T17:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-07-14T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/schoolsweek.co.uk\/?p=232403"},"modified":"2025-09-19T16:26:30","modified_gmt":"2025-09-19T15:26:30","slug":"will-ehcp-numbers-continue-to-rise-and-what-then","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/schoolsweek.co.uk\/will-ehcp-numbers-continue-to-rise-and-what-then\/","title":{"rendered":"Will EHCP numbers continue to rise, and what then?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

It is well-known that many local authorities have significant overspends<\/a> in their SEND budgets. The latest announcement<\/a> that these deficits will be kept off councils\u2019 balance sheets for two further years will have come as a huge relief to many. But to what extent is the government simply forestalling a deeper crisis?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given these stretched finances and increasing levels of SEND need, it\u2019s vital for local authorities and policy makers to proactively plan, and prioritise provision and support services for investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Predicting the future can sometimes seem like a dark art, but there is much we can say with a high degree of confidence about what the next few years will hold.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At Mime, we have worked closely with local authorities to develop a novel SEND forecasting model, built from data including the age and primary need profile of the existing SEND cohort, request rate trends, birth rates and population change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From this, we have produced an \u201cunmitigated\u201d forecast<\/a> of the trajectory for the number of EHCPs across England. In other words, this tells us what will likely happen if existing trends, in particular the rate of requests for an EHCP assessment, remain broadly consistent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key findings<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The headline finding from our new forecast for England is a projected 60-per cent increase to over 920,000 pupils with an EHCP by 2040, assuming request rates stabilise. But if request rates continue to increase, we could see a scenario where the cohort tops 1.1 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We can also see that much of this growth will be felt in secondary<\/a> and post-16 education. This reflects the recent uptick in new plans issued in early years and early primary working its way through the system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The main driver of this growth is the increasing numbers of requests for EHCP assessments, particularly in the early years. There were 154,000 requests for an EHCP in 2024, an 88-per cent increase from 2019, in spite of falling birth rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There will be particularly large growth in the numbers of children with an EHCP needing support for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and speech, language and communication needs (SLCN).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The number of children with an EHCP with a primary need of ASD has doubled since 2019 and the growth is forecast to continue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The predicted rise in SLCN is a reflection of the profile of new EHCPs being far more likely to have SLCN recorded as their primary need than was the case even a few years ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Implications<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

There are four key implications of these forecasts, each urgent given the scale of local authority deficits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Enhancing the universal offer<\/em><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

More parents of children with special education needs must feel that their children\u2019s needs are being met through universal and targeted SEN Support services, reducing the need to request an EHCP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Improving inclusive practice<\/em><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

In line with our previous research<\/a>, ensuring all young people feel a sense of belonging and are fully supported in mainstream settings may make it less likely that families request a move into specialist provision, which is typically far more expensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

SEND units and resource bases attached to mainstream schools provide a good middle ground for this. What is more, inclusive practice has been shown to improve outcomes<\/a> for children with special educational needs. This may also reduce the likelihood of a child\u2019s needs escalating to the point of requiring an EHCP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earlier intervention<\/em><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Earlier diagnosis means putting in support that can delay or prevent needs escalating to the point that an EHCP is requested.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Proactive place planning <\/em><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Local authorities too often have to rely on expensive out-of-borough independent provision, which can isolate young people. Instead, they should use robust local forecasts to develop adequate provision and reduce reliance on the independent sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In reality, all of these come with an initial cost. Without the necessary significant government investment, we will continue to see delays, parental dissatisfaction and young people without the support they need to achieve their full potential.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, at least, no one will be able to say we didn\u2019t know.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A new forecasting tool for local authorities shows the pressing need for change to avoid an \u201cunmitigated\u201d disaster for schools and families<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":311124,"featured_media":232202,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,3734],"tags":[],"post-theme":[3730],"class_list":["post-232403","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion","category-the-leader","post-theme-the-research-leader"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t